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Medium Range Forecast and Fiscal
Reserves
Medium Range Forecast
105. If our estimated economic
growth is achieved and the proposals are implemented in
respect of expenditure and revenue, the medium range
forecast for 2005?6 to 2009?0 will be as follows:
Year
|
2005?6
($ billion)
|
2006?7
($ billion)
|
2007?8
($ billion)
|
2008?9
($ billion)
|
2009?0
($ billion)
|
|
Operating revenue
|
192.6
|
195.0
|
201.3
|
210.3
|
221.2
|
|
Operating expenditure
|
208.0
|
207.1
|
203.5
|
200.0
|
202.5
|
|
Operating surplus/(deficit)
|
(15.4)
|
(12.1)
|
(2.2)
|
10.3
|
18.7
|
|
Capital revenue
|
50.5
|
61.7
|
69.4
|
60.8
|
53.7
|
|
Capital spending (including payments from the Capital Investment Fund)
|
45.6
|
48.2
|
44.4
|
43.5
|
43.3
|
|
Capital financing surplus
|
4.9
|
13.5
|
25.0
|
17.3
|
10.4
|
|
Repayment of government bonds and notes
|
?o:p>
|
2.6
|
?o:p>
|
2.7
|
3.5
|
|
Capital financing surplus after bond repayment
|
4.9
|
10.9
|
25.0
|
14.6
|
6.9
|
|
Consolidated surplus/(deficit) before bond repayment
|
(10.5)
|
1.4
|
22.8
|
27.6
|
29.1
|
|
-
as a percentage of GDP
|
0.8%
|
0.1%
|
1.5%
|
1.8%
|
1.8%
|
|
Consolidated surplus/(deficit) after bond repayment
|
(10.5)
|
(1.2)
|
22.8
|
24.9
|
25.6
|
|
-
as a percentage of GDP
|
0.8%
|
0.1%
|
1.5%
|
1.6%
|
1.5%
|
|
Fiscal reserves
|
276.8
|
275.6
|
298.4
|
323.3
|
348.9
|
|
-
as a number of months of government
expenditure
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
16
|
17
|
|
Public expenditure
|
268.6
|
270.2
|
266.4
|
261.6
|
264.0
|
|
-
as a percentage of GDP
|
20.2%
|
19.2%
|
17.9%
|
16.7%
|
16.0%
|
106.
For 2005?6, we forecast
an operating deficit of $15.4 billion, and this will
gradually decline. We
estimate that in 2008?st1:chmetcnv
UnitName="a" SourceValue="9" HasSpace="True" Negative="False" NumberType="1"
TCSC="0" w:st="on">
09 a
surplus of $10.3 billion will be recorded and the target
of restoring fiscal balance in the Operating Account
will have been achieved.
The surplus will further increase to $18.7
billion in 2009?0.
107.
In respect of the
Consolidated Account, we estimate that a deficit of
$10.5 billion will occur in 2005?6, equivalent to 0.8
per cent of GDP. Looking
ahead, we will see a gradual decline in the consolidated
deficit. We
will achieve fiscal balance in the Consolidated Account
by 2007?8, a year earlier than the original target.
A surplus of $25.6 billion will be recorded in 2009?0, equivalent to 1.5 per cent
of the GDP forecast for that year.
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