Estimates for 2019-20
181. The major policy initiatives announced in the 2018 Policy Address involve an operating expenditure of $75.3 billion and capital expenditure of $8.8 billion. I will ensure that adequate resources are provided to fully support the launch of these initiatives.
182. Total government revenue for 2019-20 is estimated to be $626.1 billion. Earnings and profits tax is estimated to be $235.9 billion. The revenue from land premium is estimated to be $143 billion, an increase of 23.3 per cent compared with the revised estimate for 2018-19. The revenue from stamp duties is estimated to be $76 billion, a decrease of 5 per cent compared with the revised estimate for 2018-19.
183. Operating expenditure is estimated to be $501.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4 per cent or $66.9 billion. This mainly involves an expenditure of $11.2 billion on the Caring and Sharing Scheme last year. Recurrent expenditure, which accounts for over 80 per cent of operating expenditure, will reach $441 billion, a year-on-year increase of nine per cent or $36.3 billion.
184. In 2019-20, the estimated recurrent expenditure on education, social welfare and healthcare accounts for about 60 per cent of government recurrent expenditure, exceeding $250 billion in total. Recurrent expenditure in these three areas recorded a cumulative increase of 45 per cent over the past five years.
185. We will increase the manpower of all departments as appropriate in 2019-20. The civil service establishment is expected to expand by 3 481 posts to 191 816. This represents a year-on-year increase of about 1.8 per cent, resuming the growth level of one to two per cent.
186. Taking all these into account, including bringing back $21.2 billion from the Housing Reserve in 2019-20, I forecast a surplus of $16.8 billion in the Consolidated Account in the coming year. Fiscal reserves are estimated to be $1,178.4 billion by the end of March 2020, equivalent to 39.4 per cent of GDP.
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