Medium Range Forecast
198. The MRF projects, mainly from a macro perspective, the revenue and expenditure as well as financial position of the Government. From 2023‑24 to 2026‑27, a real economic growth rate of three per cent per annum is adopted for the MRF.
199. During the above period, the average annual capital works expenditure will exceed $100 billion. While the recurrent government expenditure is expected to drop by 1.8 per cent in 2023-24, it will subsequently grow at a rate between 4.1 per cent and 4.6 per cent per annum.
200. Regarding revenue from land premium, the forecast for 2023‑24 continues to be based on the average proportion of revenue from land premium to GDP over the past 15 years, which is 3.8 per cent of GDP. I also assume that the growth rate of revenue from profits tax and other taxes will correspond to the economic growth rate in the next few years.
201. In addition, the MRF reflects the bringing back of the investment return of the Future Fund and the proceeds of the Government Green Bond Programme.
202. Based on the above assumptions and arrangements, I forecast a deficit in the Operating Account in 2022‑23, which will turn into a surplus in 2023‑24. There will be a surplus in the Capital Account in each of the five years during the MRF period. Except for the estimated deficit in the Operating Account in 2022‑23 which is mainly attributed to the one‑off relief measures and anti-epidemic expenditure announced in this Budget, there will be a surplus in the subsequent four years. The above forecast has not taken into account any tax rebate or relief measure that the Government may implement over the coming four years.
203. Fiscal reserves are estimated at $1.065 trillion by the end of March 2027, representing 28.9 per cent of GDP, or equivalent to 16 months of government expenditure.
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