Estimates for 2026-27
274. The major policy initiatives announced in last year's Policy Address involve $7.4 billion in operating expenditure, $32 billion in capital expenditure and $20 billion in financial commitments. Besides, there will be about $1.3 billion in revenue forgone. The financial implications of such initiatives have been reflected in the estimates for 2026‑27.
275. Total government expenditure for 2026‑27 will increase by about 6.9 per cent to $843.4 billion, with its ratio to nominal GDP projected to be 24.2 per cent.
276. Recurrent expenditure for 2026‑27 will increase by 4.8 per cent to $599.7 billion. Of this, substantial resources will continue to be allocated to livelihood‑related policy areas including healthcare, social welfare and education, involving a total of $357.1 billion and representing about 60 per cent of recurrent expenditure. Non‑recurrent expenditure will increase by 36.9 per cent to $40.5 billion.
277. Total government revenue for 2026‑27 is estimated to be $765.2 billion, while earnings and profits tax are estimated to be $321.2 billion, increasing by $2.2 billion over the revised estimate for 2025‑26. On the basis of the Land Sale Programme and the land supply target for 2026‑27, revenue from land premium is estimated to be $18 billion, increasing by $0.5 billion over the revised estimate for 2025‑26. Revenue from stamp duties is estimated to be about $101 billion, increasing by 1.5 per cent over the revised estimate for 2025‑26. Besides, we will bring back about $15.8 billion from funds established outside the Government's accounts, and transfer $37 billion and $75 billion respectively from the surplus of the Bond Fund and the investment income of the Exchange Fund to the Government's accounts.
278. The Operating Account for 2026-27 is estimated to register a surplus of about $11.9 billion, while the Capital Account is estimated to record a deficit of about $90.1 billion. Taking into account the bond issuance of about $160 billion and repayments of about $59.7 billion in 2026‑27, a consolidated surplus of $22.1 billion is expected for the year, and the fiscal reserves will rise to $679.3 billion.
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